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Anyone can present complexity. It is the rare person that can do so simply. Consider the myriad nuances, layers and data points at our disposal today. Every issue, from mass incarceration, to multi-channel marketing attribution, to Brexit, is incredibly complex. That complexity often stalls our progress when people who speak about these issues — people who present solutions — can’t present complexity simply. Why? Because it is freaking hard! : ) Focusing on our world of marketing and analytics, we must determine how to take business complexity and present it simply. Our goal is to ensure clear understanding by our leaders and guide them toward the right questions, which are rarely obvious. Today, a foremost method of achieving simplicity: the humble 2×2 matrix. What is the best way to illustrate the dilemma between business owners and customers? There are 80 possible answers to that question. But the complexity is perhaps best distilled through a 2×2 visual. An image posted to LinkedIn by Katie Ostreko offers a wonderful example: |
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Really cool, right? Customers always want the bottom-right. Business owners would love the top-left, though they’ll settle for the top-right. And there-in lies the dilemma! Every strategic problem your company faces boils down to this 2×2. Does the 2×2 solve all the problems? No, of course not. It frames the essential, and lays it naked and stark. That is its power. It will fuel many non-obvious questions stimulate rich, strategic discussions about complex topics. Another example addresses a complicated topic I’ve been immersed in for over 18 months: Jobs will become obsolete with advancements in intelligence and automation. How do we prepare for the immediate and long-term impacts of that disruption? Consider this chart from PwC in the UK (PDF): |
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[I’ve edited the graph for simplicity. Can’t help myself.] Two sources of data: PWC and Frey and Osborne. Regardless of your preference, the conclusion holds true: by the early 2030s — in just a dozen years — we can expect massive disruption. It is unclear whether it will be a lobster boil, a series of small bangs, or a big bang. But disruption is coming. [If you want to create a personal preparation plan, here’s a guide: Analytics + Marketing Career Advice: Your Now, Next, Long Plan] There are thousands of industries. Tens of thousands of job types. Hundreds of thousands of variations in the skills required for those jobs. How does one represent all that complexity simply, and yet provide enough insight to spark a constructive conversation? While there is no obvious or perfect approach, there are 10,000 ways of doing it wrong. You’ve undoubtedly seen many in cute USA Today graphics and throughout click-baited blog posts and tweets. My quest lead me to the simple framing by the Federal Reserve. It’s not a matrix, but you’ll recognize a 2×2 if you look closely: |
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(Source) All jobs boil down to four categories on two dimensions: Nonroutine Manual: Service occupations related to assisting or caring for others Routine Cognitive: Sales and office occupations Simple, right? I’m not fond of the word “manual,” so I’ve replaced it with “physical” in what I came to call the Body & Mind Matrix: |
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It dramatically focuses your attention for this complex topic, right? Now that we have a simple 2×2 structure, we can consider what might be the optimal data to drive a more focused discussion about jobs at risk due to intelligence and automation. The best piece of data, for my use case, came from an excellent article (with an unnecessarily alarming title and graphics) in Mother Jones: By when do we expect the automation to impact each job type? With that piece, here’s the completed version of the Body & Mind Job Automation Matrix: |
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Now we are really cooking. An extremely complicated topic, with loads of ambiguity and unpredictability, encompassing every job on Earth, framed in a way that anyone can comprehend and pinpoint where they lie. It deeply resonates. I bet you immediately have questions — constructive, non-obvious questions — that would have been hard to surface if I had just asked you, “What will happen to jobs due to increased automation?” That’s the beauty of simplifying complexity using a tool like 2×2. Of course, this approach excludes much detail. Loads of nuances are absent. But the takeaway balances information with simplicity to focus the viewer and power the discussion a CEO or politician — or you — will find productive. That’s the big win. I’ve used 2x2s in other instances. For example, in your quest for innovation how to know when to stop and when to keep going – a 2×2 that uses Cost and Errors. Another one I’m working on at the moment illuminates how to power smarter analytics governance – a 2×2 that uses Strategy and Speed. The use cases are endless. Bottom-line: 2x2s are just one example of representing complexity. Pair them with other approaches to simplicity in your slide decks, analytics dashboards, prenuptial agreement(s), new business strategies, and plans to solve the global clean water crisis. Be a simplicity warrior. -Avinash. PS: If you’re seeking more scary headlines on AI/automation: 1. By 2060, AI will be capable of performing any task currently done by humans. 2. Routine jobs represent 50% of the current US labor force, they’ll disappear by mid-2030s. (Both from the Oxford-Yale survey, the data analysis well worth reading. Download pdf.) 3. Spektrum der Wissenschaft, figures that 40 percent of the 500 biggest companies will vanish within a decade. Scary is there if you want it. But keep in mind two considerations: Uno. Scared is not very useful. You want a simple way to have a focused discussion that draws out non-obvious questions for you/your company. Use the Body & Mind Matrix. Dos. 38% to 47% of normal jobs are going to be automated away by 2030s. Normal jobs are the ones we currently have. During the period represented by the Body & Mind Matrix humanity will create new jobs that we can’t imagine, to solve opportunities we can’t anticipate. Oh, and if you are curious about what happens to humanity 150 years out, go read TMAI #100 for my prediction! #happydotsoflights |