The publisher dilemma: Coronavirus drives clicks, not revenue

In late March, Kate Spies, svp of content, brand and growth at the wellness site Well + Good got an unusual request from the revenue operations team at Leaf Group, Well + Good’s corporate parent.

Advertisers had begun to put terms including “coronavirus” and “covid-19” onto their keyword block lists, so the revenue team was recommending that editors at Leaf’s brands refrain from including the words in stories unless the editors felt it was necessary.

Editors, the revenue executives stressed, had final say and were under no obligation to change what they were doing. But the revenue team wanted editorial teams to be aware of the block list and suggested considering if and when the term was necessary. A piece about public health was one thing; a recipe for cookies was another.

The request caught Spies by surprise. That team had never made a recommendation like that before, and at the time, much of Well + Good’s top-performing content was coronavirus-related. Posts covering everything from myths about the virus to tips about how to shower safely were leading traffic for the site.

“Unless corona was in the headline or was central to the theme [of a story], it wouldn’t cut through,” Spies said.

Traffic and audience dynamics have changed since then, and Spies’s team, focused on serving and following the needs of their audience, spends less time writing explicitly about coronavirus.

But for many publishers, particularly in news, including the term “coronavirus” in a headline still delivers a traffic bump — “Anything with ‘coronavirus’ in the headline is instant traffic,” one newsroom source at a newspaper said — and, quite often, a revenue dent. Thanks to keyword blocking, news publisher CPMs have dropped more than a third over the past month.

And in a world where as much as 75% of the content some news sites produce is either about coronavirus or virus-adjacent that creates a possible friction between editorial and business inside publishers at a moment when many are under severe revenue pressure.

Over the past three weeks, the incidence of the term “coronavirus”
has begun to slide down. “Amid coronavirus” has given way to “With everybody
staying at home,” or “in this moment,” or the still-vaguer “right now.”

The term “coronavirus” remains pervasive —  contextual targeting tool Peer39 observed it on just under 17% of all impressions it tracked in April – but it is less ubiquitous than it was at the beginning of the month. Over the past three weeks, incidence of the term “coronavirus” is down 5% on news stories, 17% on sports stories and 16% on arts and entertainment stories.

Despite those drops, “coronavirus” still appeared in 52% of all news stories, 19% of sports stories, 22% of arts and entertainment stories, and 22% of business and finance stories published through the first three weeks of April, according to Peer39 data.

“It’s still everywhere,” said Peer39 CEO Mario Diez. “But
it’s definitely lessening.”

The term is everywhere because the coronavirus has affected
every facet of people’s lives. But it is also everywhere because the term still
provides a search traffic boost when used appropriately.

In the past couple weeks, that effect has begun to wane –
searches for the term “coronavirus” are down 75% from their peak in late March,
according to Google Trends data – but when they are used appropriately, they
still deliver a boost, said Jim Robinson, the CEO of the SEO consultancy
Clickseed.

“If the story is directly related, I wouldn’t avoid using
it,” Robinson said. “If you’re just including that keyword to give yourself an
extra boost, and what you’re writing about isn’t fundamentally linked, it’s not
going to get you more exposure.”

Some publishers have tried to manage their reporters’ use of those terms by focusing on these changing traffic trends. Business Insider reporters received a memo at the end of March advising them that cramming coronavirus in a headline would not provide a traffic boost, and that reporters should instead focus on different keywords readers might be searching for, according to one source inside BI.

Some of the drop comes from publishers drilling down further into corona-adjacent topics, often more in the vein of service journalism. Spies’s team, for example, has been steadily shifting toward other, related topics since the end of last month.

“It cheapens things if you unnecessarily put ‘covid’ into a story,” Spies said.

Yet standards of editorial independence can make having these conversations hard. Even though the line between business and editorial in media has looked blurrier in recent years, many organizations still draw a bright line between the two, to the point that even discussing these challenges is difficult.

“There’s such a lack of history at most places of these types of conversations being had between edit and biz in a productive, honest manner,” an executive editor at one digital publication said.

For example, even though The Daily Beast has crunched the numbers and knows how much less valuable coronavirus stories are, the site’s business and editorial leaders have never even discussed the business implications of the term appearing in pieces.

“I have no control over edit,” Daily Beast CRO Mia Libby said earlier this month. “Nor do I want to.”

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How the world’s biggest advertisers are spending (or not)

Usually the received wisdom in the marketing industry is that spending on advertising through a recession can make a company stronger when they come out the other side.

But this is a crisis like no other. Entire industries have ground to a halt, while others are thriving. Compare and contrast: Consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble — which has seen a lift in sales as people stock up on household items — is upping its marketing spend. Coca-Cola, on the other hand, has drastically slashed its ad budget as out-of-home sales of its products in venues and convenience stores has cratered. 

Digiday analyzed the most-recent earnings updates from the top 10 ad spenders in the world (according to RECMA data from 2018) to see how they are adapting their marketing strategies to the ongoing crisis.

1. Procter & Gamble: Increased spend and plans to keep reminding consumers about the benefits of its brands

The world’s largest consumer goods maker — and the biggest advertiser — is well-positioned during the crisis as people have flocked to supermarkets and online stores to stock up on household staples like Tide and Charmin. The company’s organic sales were up 7% in the first quarter, its best sales growth in a decade. 

“There’s big upside here in terms of reminding consumers of the benefits that they’ve experienced with our brands and how they’ve served their and their families’ needs, which is why it’s not time to go off air,” said P&G CFO Jon Moeller on the company’s first-quarter earnings call.

P&G said it increased its marketing spending by nearly 2% in the first quarter.

2. Unilever: Maintaining spend, but seeking media bargains 

Unilever’s sales performance in the first quarter didn’t exactly mirror that of its largest CPG rival. Sales were flat for the first quarter — analysts had expected 2.1% growth. The issue? While consumers did stock up on its household cleaners like Dove, Axe and Knorr, Unilever felt the hit in its food and ice cream divisions. Plus, much of its business is in emerging markets, where stockpiling hasn’t been as much of a phenomenon. Unilever withdrew its growth and margin outlook for the year, owing to uncertainty around the severity and length of the pandemic.

While Unilever is reallocating budget — shifting away from outdoor advertising, for example — it’s maintaining its level of marketing investment.

Unilever Chief Executive Alan Jope said on the company’s first-quarter earnings call that it has halted any new major ad productions that were in the works, reviewing ad spending to take advantage of cheaper ad rates and “dialing up areas with strong ROI.” 

3. L’Oréal: cutting advertising in the short-term, but preparing for a bounce back

L’Oréal’s first-quarter sales dropped 4.8% — as the hair salons to which it sells products and other retailers were forced to pull down the shutters as countries entered lockdowns. A bright spot was skincare sales, which rose 13%.

The Maybelline maker said trends from China, its largest business, looked positive for a rebound in beauty sales elsewhere. L’Oreal said it was “already seeing an encouraging recovery in beauty product consumption” after lockdown rules began to be relaxed in the country — though mask wearing does hit lipstick use.

Speaking on the company’s first-quarter earnings call, L’Oréal CEO Jean Paul Agon described the current situation as a supply crisis, not a demand crisis, and that the impact should be temporary. E-commerce and digital have become a core focus as L’Oréal focuses its marketing activity to meet the needs of new at-home beauty trends. 

“When stores are closed it doesn’t make sense to advertise on products and it can be even frustrating to advertise on products that consumers just cannot buy,” said Agon. “Definitely we will cut on these advertising spendings for this short period of time.”

4. Renault Nissan Mitsubishi alliance: Cutting back in the short-term

French automaker Renault’s sales slumped 19% in the first quarter as dealerships shut and consumer demand for cars has dropped. The company has suspended its financial guidance and said it’s seeking financial support from the French government.

Japan-based Nissan said last week it expects to post its first annual loss since 2009 — which was the time of the last financial crisis — due to the impact of the pandemic. In March, its global sales plummeted 43% from the previous year. Mitsubishi has not yet provided a financial update for the coronavirus period.

Both companies have said cash preservation is now key — though long-term plans like new car launches are still loosely in place.

Renault “reduced advertisement[s] as much as we can in the last part of the quarter; we are going to do the same in Q2,” said Clotilde Delbos, acting CEO and CFO at Groupe Renault “Nevertheless, we do hope the activity is going to restart.”

5. Amazon: All systems go

Unsurprisingly, Amazon’s revenue soared in the first quarter as consumers quickly shifted to shopping online. But conversely, while revenue rose 26%, profit dropped 29% from the year-ago quarter. Costs rose as the company raced to fulfill the surge in orders.

Amazon said it expects to record an operating loss of $1.5 billion or profit of $1.5 billion in the second quarter. The company reported $3.1 billion in operating income in the second quarter of 2019.

Marketing expenses increased 32% on the year-ago quarter to $4.8 billion. However, the company said it had been lowering marketing in some areas as a way to dampen consumer demand for non-essential items.

6. Coca-Cola: Slashing spending

Coke has been severely impacted by the closure of bars, restaurants, movie theaters and stadiums, which make up a large proportion of its sales. Plus, people aren’t making the kind of impulse purchases of soda that they usually did from convenience outlets.

Net sales fell 1% in the three months to the end of March, versus the year-ago quarter. Coca-Cola said its when reporting earnings on Apr. 21 that April sales volumes had slumped by 25%.

Coca-Cola was early out the gate, warning advertising vendors in March that “from April and until further notice we’re putting commercial advertising for Coca-Cola and all our brands on hold.”

“We have determined that in this initial phase there is limited effectiveness in broad-based brand marketing,” said Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey on the first-quarter earnings call. “With this in mind, we have reduced our direct consumer communication, [and we have] paused sizeable marketing campaigns through the early stages of the crisis and will re-engage when the timing is right.

7. GlaxoSmithKline: A coronavirus bump

Pharmaceuticals giant Glaxosmithkline had a strong first quarter, posting a 19% rise in sales that beat analysts’ expectations. GSK is also working to develop Covid-19 vaccines.

However, the company didn’t raise its 2020 guidance and said it expects a 1 to 4% drop in profit this year. The drugmaker said consumer consumption levels in China were beginning to return to pre-coronavirus levels — plus it had experienced some supply chain and manufacturing challenges.

GSK didn’t provide a detailed update on its marketing activity but, on the earnings call, chief executive Emma Walmsley said “our goal is to invest behind our new launches” and that “the investment into digital is ongoing.”

8. Volkswagen: ‘Full-blown task force mode’

Like other car manufacturers, the pandemic has substantially impacted Volkswagen’s business. Revenue dropped 8.3% in the first quarter. 

Chief finance officer Frank Witter predicts the second quarter will be the worst of the year and that overall, 2020 sales will be “significantly” below last year.

Witter described the current situation as being “in full-blown taskf orce mode” as Volkswagen looks to stabilize the business.

“This involves stringently reducing costs further and cutting budgets back drastically in all areas like external consultancy and marketing,” Witter said.

9. McDonald’s: Promoting its free meals for first responders

McDonald’s has been forced to close many of its restaurants around the world and service has been restricted in locations that are still open.

Even still, with shelter at home instructions still in place, many customers are skipping takeaway burgers and breakfasts. Sales fell 6% in the quarter to March 31, while profit dropped by 17%. 

McDonald’s is still spending. Late last month, the fast food chain launched a U.S. campaign airing on national television promoting its free meals for first responders push, as Ad Age reported.

Looking ahead, CEO Chris Kempczinski on the earnings call that value will be an important focus of future marketing campaigns, judging by trends from China, where footfall hasn’t immediately sprung back to normal levels. “Each market is rebuilding their marketing calendar to reflect these learnings and many others, so we can reignite our business momentum,” he said.

10. NBCUniversal/Comcast: Peacock push is coming

Comcast is a sprawling company and some aspects of its business are more shielded from the crisis than others.  While its broadband division marked an uptick in signups, it can’t open its theme parks, TV and film productions are on hold and NBCUniversal and its recently-purchased Sky TV business can’t broadcast any live sports.

That’s not to mention the collapse of the ad market. The company expects advertising revenue to be down significantly in the second quarter. Overall, Comcast’s revenue was down 0.9% in the first quarter.

NBCUniversal began rolling out its new ad-supported Peacock streaming service in April to Comcast customers, earlier than initially planned. The national launch is set for July, but without many of the shows it had initially planned to offer, due to the production issues.

In the first quarter, Comcast’s overall advertising marketing and promotion costs rose 2.6% versus the year-ago quarter to $1.94 billion.

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With sports on hold, Action Network adapts with pushup challenges, poker and baseball cards

People’s appetite for sports betting is not going away, despite the fact that nearly every sporting event has been canceled. 

As a result of ongoing interest in betting, Action Network, a publisher aimed at informing sports bettors, has adapted to expand its content offerings in order to maintain engagement in a time that could otherwise be grim.

Part of this adaptation includes hosting poker tournaments, streaming pushup challenges Twitch and starting a sports memorabilia show. At a time with no major live sports — there is still table tennis to bet on in the Moscow Liga — Action has adapted its content approach.

In the latest episode of The New Normal — a weekly interactive discussion show focused on how media adapts to a new reality — Keane discussed his outlook for both the media and sports industries and how his business has been adapting to the steep drop off in coverage accompanying the cancelation of sports. 

Below are some highlights from the conversation, lightly edited for clarity.

Getting creative with content and testing new channels 

Action Network has adapted its content strategy to be more creative in the events that it covers, but also in how they are being covered. “People will bet on anything,” Keane said. “There isn’t a day that goes by where there isn’t some darts event or a corn hole tournament that people don’t want to have a wager on. 

Esports, in particular, is a sport that Action Network has been doing more coverage of, and would do more of right now if there were more on-shore, legal sports books that were providing odds for this sector. 

Other new projects include a sports memorabilia show, “The Last Dance,” which features sports industry figureheads sharing the keepsakes that they have in their homes and memorabilia appraisers telling them what they are worth.

Image description –
From an episode of sports memorabilia show “The Last Dance.”

The publisher has been testing out new platforms, like Twitch, for content creation during this time. Last month, FantasyLabs co-founder Jonathan Bales streamed a 12-hour push up challenge on Action Network’s Twitch account that challenged him to do 2,400 pushups within that time frame for $2,000. 

Image description –
A screenshot from Action Network’s Twitch pushup challenge.

Poker is also a game that Keane said can be covered similarly to the other areas on the platform and for that reason, the publisher started hosting live streamed poker tournaments featuring some of its talent and with professional players.

Image description –
Unlike other casino games, Keane said poker fits in with the edge of sports betting that Action Network is known for.

Bridging the gap

Keane said that in order to still produce content during this time, the publisher has stepped further into its role in servicing the betting industry. When Colorado made mobile sports betting legal as of May 1, his editorial team covered that like they would any other sports beat, he said. “We want to be a reference brand for sports betting, which is not just from a consumer perspective, but we want to cover our own category” in a business sense. 

A hunger for sports is driving traffic

Action Network “thrives on sports being live and sports happening,” Keane said, and as long as people can bet on sports and watch sports on TV, CEO Patrick Keane said “business is going to be just fine,” however, there is a lot of unpredictability around when sports are going to come back in full. 

This month, golf is slated to make its return with a charity golf match between Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning and Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady. Keane predicts that much like this year’s NFL Draft — which brought in 37% more viewers during round one over the prior year, according to the NFL — this golf event will have “extraordinary” ratings. “You’re going to see ratings that look like Cheers’ final season,” Keane said.

And because of this increase in live viewership, as well as a concentration on the NFL Draft for making bets, Keane said that Action Network’s audience for its NFL Draft content was up nearly 150% year over year. 

How the behavior of sports betting will change

“Sports betting has been part of the culture and vernacular forever and it’s only going to get bigger because there are so many new people coming into it,” Keane said. The younger generations — Gen-Z and millennials — are in a unique position because they’ve grown up with betting and having access to unlimited data nearly their entire lives, making them more informed betters than ever before.

Geographically, however, in New Jersey, Keane said that around 87% of bets are done on mobile platforms while 40% of bets are placed within a two-mile radius of the border. He said that this indicates that a lot of people are coming in from the border of New York. “We’ll see how that behavior changes post-COVID,” he said. 

How the digital media industry will change

Keane said that the similarities between this coronavirus-induced economic downturn and previous economic impacts to the media industry include immediate cut backs on advertising and marketing, however, in this instance, unlike others, there is less predictability around what the outcome will be.

“There weren’t any systemic issues in the general monetary system. This was something that was such an unpredictable factor that unfortunately there will be businesses that will see generational decline and I don’t think we felt that in the recession of 2008 or in 2001,” Keane said.

This Friday, at noon ET, we are airing our next episode of The New Normal, a weekly interactive show focused on how publishers are adapting their businesses. This week, Barstool Sports CRO Deirdre Lester will talk with Digiday editor-in-chief Brian Morrissey about adapting the company’s revenue strategy in the absence of (non-virtual) events. Register here.

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Digiday Research: 40% of advertisers won’t advertise near coronavirus-related content

01
Key Hits
  • Brands continue to avoid spending next to coronavirus news content
  • Ad spending is down for 63% of brands
  • For brands that continue to spend, performance marketing is taking a (short term) hit

For the media industry, the buy-side continues to be reluctant to spend any money on ads alongside coronavirus content. A new Digiday survey found that 40% of brands are not advertising next to coronavirus-related news online, up slightly from the same survey conducted a month ago, when 37% said they will not buy ads alongside coronavirus-related content.

The newest data also shows that 63% of brands are still reducing their ad spending due to the coronavirus, while over 40% of them  

This Digiday survey was sent to 60 execs inside brands with spending decisionmaking power. 

There are some messaging strategies changing as a result of the coronavirus. The majority of respondents said that they were pulling back on performance advertising (where they were spending money) and doing more “brand” advertising.

One of the big issues for these brands has been supply chain issues — 63% of respondents said they’ve experienced supply chain disruptions. 

02
Impact on ad expenditure

The impact of the current crisis is most likely to be felt, for the long term, on ad buying and ad spending decisions. 

Per the IAB, about 74% of “buy-side” decision makers said that this outbreak will have a bigger impact on ad spending in the U.S. than the 2008 financial crisis. 

The first order of business was putting campaigns and other planned expenditures on hold.

A survey by Digiday in March found that 75% of media buyers say their clients are reducing their marketing spend due to the coronavirus. In a separate question, 73% of buyers also said that clients were pausing their marketing expenditure on various channels almost entirely.

03
Channels are shifting, perhaps for the long term

An early April survey from Digiday/Glossythat asked 100 brands in the retail, fashion and beauty industries about changes they’ve made to their marketing strategies.

The top five channels brands were either temporarily reducing or temporarily leaving were in print advertising, direct mail, out of home ads, TV/radio and podcasts, and of course, events. The top channels brands planned to permanently reduce or entirely eliminate advertising in were events, TV/radio and podcasts, and online display. 

04
Early impacts in Q1

As the majority of retail stores have shuttered, it’s been harder for companies to make sure e-commerce operations (if they even had them to begin with) actually make up for that revenue.

And while online buying is increasing, it’s not across the board: About 38% of Digiday respondents said they’re seeing an increase in online sales, while 54% said they’ve seen a decrease in physical sales already. 

05
More Coronavirus impact research

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